The Curse of the Ratings Agency

Now I’m not an expert and I guess many of us aren’t but we are all probably beginning to form an opinion about this new being on the horizon: the credit rating agency. These faceless organisations who seem able to dictate an incredible amount of news and shape opinion about banks and countries.

I know they are not new and there have been many a similar organisation offering the same damning opinions on individuals who have had trouble with banks over the years. I was never comfortable with the concept as judgement was passed on people with no real knowledge of their personal circumstances. Simply a blunt ‘computers says no’ response, pushing the desperate victim into the jaws of sharks.

None us will have much sympathy for the debate round the board room table of a bank for a trash rating as it’s unlikely anyone individually would lose much sleep. Maybe they would be forced to turn over in the beds as to whether they could still afford the third house by the sea. The thing that disturbs me most is that they seem to be able to form an opinion stream that results in pretty damning economic consequences. There ability to mark a plague cross on any organisation or country can begin a chain reaction that costs people livelihoods. The facts that the debate are the same in voting chambers and media offices makes no difference, as at least they have a remote accountability for what they produce. These agencies have no accountability and the cynic in me suggests they have a clear motive for profit.

It could work one of two ways. I can imagine a battle among the agencies to be the first to shout ‘Plague’ for any of the organisations rumoured to be in trouble. There has to be a race because there’s nothing for coming second in this media scrum. They want to be first in the news because now everyone will know who they are. The agency whose second to shout will not be in with a sniff of attention. Assuming that attention is what these agencies seek, the media clamber over a new announcement must create a pressure to shout at the absolute earliest opportunity, and maybe ultimately before absolutely necessary therefore ruining a reputation with no justification. This has now turned into a rumour of rumour which leads to more uncertainty in a market place which is already dithering.

The second tactic, and the really cynically option is that these agencies are complying with short selling. They are deliberately driving down the reputation of an organisation for someone to profit on the reduced share price. This may absolutely not be the case, and is purely a point of view from the layman, but with the various dark rooms in which the financial market operates, it’s hard to see that somewhere from all of this doom and gloom there isn’t someone laughing his arse off.

It’s an inevitable conclusion, because it would be absolutely straightforward to start a rumour of success and stability. Start talking up the market, start reassuring financiers that the world will not end tomorrow. If a few trillion is wiped off a stock exchange the sun will still rise. People will still need to eat and do all the things that make the world go round. They may do it off less money and struggle a while, but it will still happen. Why? Because it has to. The world keeps turning and the wheel is relentless.

The game of politics and economics is just that, it’s a game played round the roulette wheel. The money doesn’t go anywhere. It’s like energy it recycles itself. In the end financiers can’t stop that roulette wheel turning because if they did, society would descend into oblivion and the comfortable life they created would die with it. That’s why if they wanted to and when the financiers believe they’ve made enough profit from doom, they can respin the wheel of fortune.

© S.G.Norris

Deluded Fools or Guilty of Murder

A news article tripped across the wires this morning concerning Aids sufferers who had died because they stopped taking their life-saving drugs on the advice of their pastor or whatever title they choose to give themself. God’s Will would save them instead. There are always two-sides to a news story and there was likely more to know in this but the premise seems clear enough.

There are so many angles to take when reacting to this, each requiring a person of sound mind to shake their head from side to side in utter disgust.

Issue could be taken with the individuals themselves who chose to believe in the preacher but then you might also learn that it was the same preacher or one of similar heritage who suggested that the use of protection in pursuing sexual relationships was the devils work. Strange that the threat of the devils work was never quite enough for them to suspend the promiscuous activity but the use of protection was. Perhaps they felt it was a double jeopardy and that one sin was easier to explain than two. Whatever people chose to believe is in their hands inevitably, one mans medicine man is another’s poisoner.

I turn to the pastor for my vitriol as we expect them to carry more intelligence and awareness of the world about them, such that they would have some responsibility for the impact of their words of stupidity. My first instinct is to look for money changing hands as the motive for such shady operation. The con merchant often knows no depths in the pursuit of profit. This I would understand more if these individuals were offering a vision of hope that would keep the punters returning for another day, but something that would kill off the money trail like this makes me wonder whether they are as deluded as those that queue to listen to them. I say this only because I can’t see where the profit lies in killing your customers. It is hoped that some of the others following in the queue consider turning around and looking elsewhere for solace but I suspect the pastor in question will have an answer to the obvious questions. Something along the lines of God’s punishment and if you hand over a little more money, we will make sure that God’s sees fit to overlook your previous misdemeanour.

Do I believe the pastor to be evil? Given that evil corresponds to a religious negative then it’s perhaps not the right word. Perhaps the better way to examine their motive is to question whether the pastor is either guilty of murder or manslaughter. The legal debate would fall on whether he deliberately intended his victims to die or whether it was simply an indirect result of his words. Sadly it is unlikely these portrayers of death will see a court for their actions but I wish they would. Only then might we begin to see that such preaching of ignorance is as much a crime as inciting religious hatred or conspiracy to murder.

© S.G.Norris 

Marketing, Luck or Good Judgement

I’ve been pushing my book down various avenues in the last few months and overall been quite disappointed with the results. Everything in life is a learning curve and it does take a while to see what gets results and what doesn’t.

Here are some of the things that have brought success and what hasn’t.

1)      Book Signings – This was tricky at first but now worked out the secret to getting this right. First thing I’ve learnt is that book stores like to do signings whether you’re known or not. This is because it gives the store something to focus on for a day and generate interest. So don’t be shy about going down to any store and asking. I would be surprised if they turn you away. Also on the day make sure you have something to give people to provide information. A leaflet or even some sweets or chocolates. Anything to generate interest and get people talking. People are often shy of approaching an author therefore finding a way of getting the conversation going is essential to sealing the deal.

2)      Facebook Advertising – This is an interesting but ultimately tricky task. I tried a few different ways. The key to it is identifying target groups, like people who like reading. Well firstly that’s all well and good if people indicate on their facebook page that they like reading. Some do but probably there are many readers out there who don’t. Having said that you don’t pay for how often your ad appears but how often people click on it. I found more success out of targeting local markets rather likes/dislikes. The other trick is that people might click on your page but it doesn’t mean they will click on to buy. Whatever you direct them to, make sure how to buy and what you are selling is clear, otherwise they will disappear before you know it.

3)      Google Adwords – A bit like facebook advertising but even more of a minefield of targeting the right market place. I tried to get my kindle marketing going with this because I dropped the price to £2 to generate more interest but haven’t yet found the combination that really works. Genre specific headings or book writing in general can result on many clicks, but still not people buying. I know others have had much more success in the e-book market and I need to spend more time on this and how they did it.

4)      Print Media – This is the golden calf of advertising but difficult to achieve. After a few challenges with my local newspaper, which had little to do with me, they have finally got round to printing a story on me. I’m hoping for some success from this, but really want to get more regional papers to take an interest. I have tried sending books directly to them but so far I’ve been ignored. I will keep trying.

5)      Blogging and social media- This is very time consuming and intensive. It’s very difficult to keep the momentum on this one but I think I’ve some more ways to do it but it doesn’t mean that everyone chooses to read what you have to say.

Interested to know others success/failure stories with marketing. It’s a very big and scary world out there but do believe who people know who you are and they like you, then they will buy your book.